P.S. A Column On Things

Karl Rove: Still At It

Obama Hasn't Closed the Sale
Karl Rove
How convenient and almost too well-timed. First, the above article (dated Oct. 16, 2008 which means it had to be written no later than the afternoon of Oct. 15) appears in The Wall Street Journal. It refers to the allegedly "undecided" voters in the Gallup Poll. This, by the way, is not your father's or grandfather's Gallup Poll; current management is right wing and their poll results have been reading that way. Then the Gallup Poll itself releases results on the evening of Oct. 15 (according to that paragon of journalistic excellence Matt Drudge). The poll alleges that their latest tracking results show an Obama lead of only 49-47% over McCain. Investor's Business Daily, also relatively right wing and not known for its journalism, comes up with a poll showing a 3% Obama lead according to Rove's article. Without meaning to be helpful, Rove notes that IBD's 2004 result was the most accurate because it was "only 0.4% off the actual result." That actual certified result was arguably a fraud as previously reported by PSACOT and numerous other independent journalistic organizations. "Independent" is here defined as not owned by the six or so major corporate conglomerates controlling most of the so-called mainstream outlets. In short, IBD in 2004 came closest to the mark in predicting what has been reported to be a fraud. One wonders how that happened. IBD came closest to the mark in predicting the reportedly fraudulent certified which result did not and does not accurately reflect how the voters cast their ballots. This of course raises the question of whether IBD in 2004 sampled the electorate or someone with advance knowledge of the fraud (or maybe they just had a "convenient" selection of weights for their sample).

Rolling Stone says this about Rove:

Rove's comeback is evidence that the attack on our civic institutions in the Bush years wasn't an isolated incident, something we can pin on a specific group of now-deposed politicians. It's a trend, a thing that grows in direct proportion to our greed and ignorance. We may be a country at war, facing one of the greatest financial meltdowns of all time. But in the end, the thing that could be our undoing is the kind of generalized boredom with legality and honor that empowers Rovian behavior. If we let it.

Sleazy Robocalls below the radar,

Briefs

• Cracking the Acorn case
• Graphic Artists provide 30 reasons to vote for Obama
• MIT hosted a debate between Obama and McCain surrogates on the issue of energy. If energy is your issue, check it out:
  http://tech.mit.edu/V128/N45/energydebate.html
  http://tech.mit.edu/V128/N46/woolsey.html
  http://tech.mit.edu/V128/N46/grumet.html
• Rumors and truth about Joe the Plumber
• Did Palin Falsely Imply Mayoral Opponent Was Jewish?
• GOP Congressman Jokes About Pro-Obama Vote Suppression
• Generous Henry's Big Bailout. Can we afford four more years of this? Also Please God, Don't Let The Big Banks Get Their Feelings Hurt. Taxpayers chip in for $70 million pay package.
• Nate Silver, the guy behind my favorite electoral map
• Subprime meltdown: NOT the fault of federal poor-people loan programs
• No need to include Palin in foreign affairs briefings...
• McCain Campaign: "Real Virginia" Is "Southern In Nature"
• Judge McCain by his appointments
• Big News Orgs Picking Up On Magnitude Of McCain's Robo-Slime Campaign. Apparently, McCain doesn't understand irony: McCain Using Same Robocall Firm That Helped Smear Him In 2000
• When They Say ‘Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac’, They Mean ‘Brown People’ A chance to watch the National Review defend this despicable tactic in a live chat. Language warning: Taibi uses some harsh language to describe the tactic.
• The only one who Really pals around with a terrorist is John McCain with Gordon Liddy.

Technobriefs

by Craig Reynolds

Whose ox gored?: Senator McCain had never been a outspoken critic of the draconian provisions of the anti-consumer DMCA until it became an inconvenience for his presidential campaign: McCain Campaign Feels DMCA Sting and YouTube rejects McCain request for DMCA takedown fix. Just a year ago the shoe was on the other foot: Fox Orders Halt to McCain Ad.

Hubble fixed (not): it was on again off again for Hubble: NASA completes remote fix of Hubble's failed computer then Hubble telescope encounters further problems, delays: NASA.

Bio-energy constants: this article about an apparently universal constant: Pound for Pound, All Life Uses Same Amount of Energy reminded me of this nice presentation about a constant ratio related to locomotion energetics: The Strouhal Number in Cruising Flight.

Technobits: government surveillance in the UK: Giant database plan 'Orwellian' --- EFF Challenges Bogus Patent on Internet Music Files --- How Spam is Improving AI --- iGoogle Users iRate About Portal's Changes --- 15 Killer Android Apps For The G1 --- OpenOffice 3 goes native on the Mac --- Intuition + Money - An Aha Moment (see also Pitch black metal from 2006) --- Capitalism to the Rescue - Green Tech Rising --- Computing with RNA --- after 50 years on the shelf: Vials From Miller-Urey Experiment Offer New Hints on Origin of Life --- Skin Deep - Computer Program Produces Image of an Ideal You (as previously mentioned here in August, see Ken Perlin's reaction) --- cool Warehouse Robots bring the shelves to the worker --- The stunning icy landscape of Saturn's moon as spacecraft passes just 16 miles from surface --- Our Milky Way like you've never seen it before --- 35 Phenomenal Fractal Art Pictures.

Neal Vitale Reviews: W.

3.5 stars out of 5

The latest biopic from Oliver Stone (JFK, The Doors, Nixon) is a curiously restrained and toothless profile of the current President.  Perhaps with such an easy target, Stone chose a higher road and opted for only a few cheap laughs, but the result is lightweight. There are a few interesting - perhaps controversial - editorial angles to the storyline, notably the tension between W and his father and fraternal competition with Jeb, and certain Bush advisers and Cabinet members are treated more sympathetically (Colin Powell) than others (Condolezza Rice, Donald Rumsfeld). But the centerpiece of the film is its diverse, talented cast. Standing out is more fine work by the under-appreciated Josh Brolin, on a run of recent successes that includes No Country For Old Men, In The Valley Of Elah, and American Gangster, as George W. He is surrounded by many established film and theatrical actors such as James Cromwell, Richard Dreyfuss, Ellen Burstyn, Bruce McGill, Scott Glenn, Toby Jones, and Stacy Keach, plus, from television Rob Corddry and Noah Wyle. But, in the classic Oliver Stone manner, there are so many characters present that very few gain enough screen time and substance to make an impact. Which leaves me asking why W. was made, as it adds so little to what we know about the 43rd President.

Letters: Dern on Colbert, Dan Grobstein File

Daniel Dern notes:

Marvel Comics is offering a variant edition of Amazing Spider-Man #573 with Comedy Channel's Stephen Colbert on the cover along with Spidey, see the NewsARama story. (According to my comic shop, Colbert's a fanboy; if you look carefully, you'll see a Captain America shield as one of the things on his wall (on the show).) 'Nuff said!

Dan Grobstein File

Beating the Freedom of Information Act. Alaska says, sure you can have Palin's emails; it will cost you $15 million.

End of October 20 column

Ten Years Later

(A reprint of my annual anniversary item, with small adjustments).

As of Oct. 16, it's been ten years. Ten years! An anniversary divisible by 5, which makes it special and magical and worth extra notice! When I started this column, "W" was still the second-rate governor of Texas, and Sara Palin was busy running Wasila. And John McCain was angry. John McCain is still angry. I was still working for CMP, and had a weekly podcast, back before pods. My heart beat by itself and I weighed 270 pounds. In short, things were different. I believe I am one of the longest continuous bloggers on the Internet.

In any case, it has been ten years since fury at the Clinton impeachment drove me to write this weekly blog--an impeachment, we now discover, that even Republicans didn't want. It was forced on the nation by Dick "The Hammer" Armey--with whom karma caught up. There is, sometimes, justice in the universe. Perhaps the Republicans will finish reaping that Karma in the 2008 election; we shall see.

[As a U.S. history teacher, I am forced to note that Andrew Johnson's impeachment was a rabid partisan witch hunt, as was Clinton's. Only Nixon's was bipartisan--and only Nixon resigned.]

In 1998, I either had to start a column or check into a mental institution. PSACOT gave me a forum in which to express, to an audience (no matter how small) my feelings about that political circus. It has since evolved into a combination of diary for my family and me and bulletin board for my clever friends--in short, a personal column. Like, but not as good as, former San Francisco Chronicle columnist Adair Lara or ongoing columnist Jon Carroll. Or, to take a national example, former New York Times columnist Anna Quindlen, considered the mother of the personal column concept (even though Stanton Delaplane and Charles McCabe of the San Francisco Chronicle actually beat her to it--but of course, if it hasn't happened in New York, it hasn't happened).

PSACOT is also a revival of sorts. Among my readers, Daniel Dern and Peter Peckarsky would remember the original P.S. A Column On Things, which ran in ERGO, MIT's objectivist newspaper from September 1970 to March 1971, and The Tech, MIT's semi-official student newspaper, from March 1971 to May 1971. Those were among my happiest days as a journalist. If I had truly understood the fulfillment a personal column gave me, perhaps I would have fought harder to keep it when Bob Fourer killed it, or I would have revived it when I became editor-in-chief two years later, or tried to practice the craft as an adult(and become the father of the personal column).

Ironically, this column, born in a political circus, celebrates its tenth anniversary during another political circus. I am as passionate about this one as I was the impeachment, perhaps more so. The 2008 election is the most important election of my lifetime, and yet I have had to drop politics from the column for a month to keep from busting a blood vessel. There's still time for the Democrats to blow this election. I am passionate, but it is a controlled passion.

Still, I expect you'll read as much or more about Marlow and Rae and their doings, and my classroom, as you will about politics in this forum again this year. It is increasingly apparent I am mellowing with age.

Worst Case, Electoral Fun and Games, Briefs

Worst Case

The New York Times should be ashamed of itself.

Cheerleading for the local industry or business may be understandable for a very small-town newspaper (many, if not most, of which nevertheless uphold their First Amendment obligation (it comes along with the right) to report the facts in the news columns and leave the opinion to the editorial page. See "Those With A Sense of History May Find It's Time to Invest," by Alex Berenson, pp. A1 and A27, Oct. 12, 2008. The alleged reporter (as opposed to editorial writer) found a couple of investors to opine that some stocks were real buys because they were lower than they had been in some time. The reporter and The Times get partial credit for at least including the quotes which indicated it may take years for it to become clear that this is a buying opportunity (which it arguably is not - see PE analysis below).

With the article there was a graphic on page A27 which indicates there may be a market bottom (based on historical PE ratios) at a PE ratio (based on four quarters of trailing earnings on the S P 500) of about 8 which is where it was in about 1982. The Dow 30 index closed at 8451.19 on Friday, October 10, 2008. According to the article, the trailing PE ratio was 17.2 at the close on 10/10/08. All of which indicates, based on this indicator, that there may be a bottom somewhere around a Dow Jones 30 Industrials Average of 3977.03 (call it 4000) if earnings (the "E" part of PE) stay constant. Could earnings decline? The article states that the PE based on expected earnings (not trailing but expected future earnings) in 2009 is about 13). Barring any other changes (as for example downward revisions of earnings estimates), the bottom is about 3041.30 (call it 3000) on the Dow.

The other institution which should be ashamed of itself is the U.S. Congress which again allowed itself to be stampeded and bamboozled for no good reason. This time Congress had every reason to know it was being railroaded and in fact knew it was being bamboozled by George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. Still, it passed the bailout bill to help the friends of George, Dick, and derelict in his duty Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson once (and perhaps real soon now future) leader of Goldman Sachs. During the alleged "hearings" which preceded the combination bailout and Christmas tree bill Paulson and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke made it clear they had been derelict. That is, they failed to lift an effective finger prior to March 2008 to stop the train wreck whose imminent approach was apparent to anyone looking. They continued to be derelict. Even at the hearings they did not know what they were going to do, did not have a schedule of obligations for each of the big financial companies, did not understand the interactive effect of their obligations and wanted to delay any additional financial regulation until 2009. In fact, they were unwilling even to attempt to close the barn door after the horses had fled. It appears they would continue to be derelict (as soon as Christmas tree bailout passed they let the world know no money from the $700B would be spent for a month or two (after telling Congress they needed action in days). No wonder the markets didn't believe them.

***

Electoral Fun and Games

Look at a map (www.electoral-vote.com). Note that Obama is estimated to have about 343 electoral votes on Oct. 11 if the election were held then. In some key states, he is ahead by less than the margin of error (arbitrarily selected as plus or minus 3) and/or under 50%. A racist might tell a pollster she is undecided but there is little basis to conclude she would say she is for Obama. Thus, in this election, an assumption of an even split of allegedly undecided voters may be inappropriate. Those states are Nev, NM, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, with 66 electoral votes; Virginia (13) is at +6; 343 less 79 is 264 (which is less than the 270 electoral votes needed to win. The trend seems to be in Obama's direction.

The use of voting machines lacking ballots marked by a voter (as opposed to by a machine allegedly doing what a voter tells it to do) is standard in Nevada, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. There is an apparent absence of attention to this issue by the Obama campaign.

Q: What do you do if the reported unofficial and eventually certified result is for McCain in a state where the pre-election polls showed Obama winning and there is no voter (not machine) marked ballot to check or no paper record at all?

A: Inaugurate President-in-waiting Palin and her sidekick McCain.

A conclusion that the election is over (or has been decided) may be premature.

***

Briefs

• Frank Rich steps up to the plate, abides by the longest (and only remaining) tradition in American politics and American political journalism, eschews use of the word Nazi and limits himself to the wholly unobjectionable and entirely accurate Weimar like rage at McCain-Palin rallies
• McCain's Real Record
• "Unsubstantiated": A Failure of Nerve at the Times

• If you want to deal with guilt by association, remember what CNN said about one of John McCain's chief surrogates the day she left her last job:
  Carly Fiorina, one of the most powerful women in corporate America, is leaving the troubled computer maker (HP) after being forced out by the company's board.
  Mostly for financial reasons, but also because she ordered board members to be wiretapped while hunting for leaks.
• Good You Tube viewing: John McCain has been characterized as having a very strong temper -- here's some folks sharing their experiences with that unpleasant side of the Senator. Senator McCain has been extremely critical of Senator Obama's proposed policy that sometimes it may make sense to sit down and talk with the enemy. Former Iraq commander General Petraeus, however, doesn't think sitting down and talking with the adversary is a bad idea at all. In this video, Petraeus wholeheartedly admits that sometimes it's an appropriate course of action.

Technobriefs

by Craig Reynolds

Just a little wisp of a post this busy week... On Tuesday Apple will reveal a new laptop which may or may not feature a novel case design: Apple's Brick: A Radical New Laptop? and Apple's 'Brick' manufacturing rumors - not so revolutionary? See Lawrence Lessig's WSJ essay In Defense of Piracy. Also of note this week: Liquid logic, Light bulb networks could be the next WiFi, 6 Exceptional Web-based Image Editors, Mercury Flyby Reveals Bright Craters, Long Rays, Shark "Virgin Birth" Confirmed and Mammals facing extinction threat.

Dern: A Library To Drool Over, Kids Say the Darndest Things, Dalton on the Debt, New Weird Al, Jon Carroll Cat Column, Marjorie Wolfe on Wealth, Dan Grobstein File

Daniel Dern suggests a library to drool over.

I rarely quote my students because most of my tests are multiple choice. But recently, I lectured for a day on the financial crisis; then a few days later, I gave an open note essay test to see what the absorbed. Quite a lot, actually, but in one case, a student who proved, by what they wrote that they understood the subject, still made an interesting word choice:

Banks are systems in which money comes in, comes out and is given away... loans are when the bank gives you money.

That, of course, is precisely the problem we're having :-)

Richard Dalton notes:

If you have friends who are complaining about the $700 billion bailout, remind them that if we weren't engaged in a useless, unwarranted war in Iraq, we could have written a check for that amount instead of raising the national debt by that amount.

Scoot over to Itunes and buy Weird Al's new single, "Whatever You Like." It is a parody of the #1 smash hit by T.I. (which, coincidentally, is also called "Whatever You Like"). (I know about this because I am a close, personal friend of Al. That's what it says on the email)

Why do I love Jon Carroll? Allow me to demonstrate with the lede of his most recent cat column:

I had a serious debate with myself. It had two sides, like so many of your better debates. On one hand, I am the current winner of the Ernie Pyle Lifetime Achievement Award from the National Society of Newspaper Columnists. I am not bragging here, because modesty is, I think, one of my lifetime achievements, but you need to know this fact to understand the nature of the dilemma.

So I have a certain gravitas now, or at least I am alleged by others to have a certain gravitas. And should a man with the power to sway literally millions (if you count several people swayed thousands of times) not be out there swaying? I mean, as I write this, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stands at 3 - shouldn't I be helping with that?

On the other hand, I have a kitten. I could, of course, postpone writing kitten columns until our national emergency has subsided (which might not be for a while, shh). On the other hand, the kitten is not going to postpone becoming a cat. By the time I serve my tenure as Ernie Pyle Guy, Pancho is gonna weigh 10 pounds and be sleeping in the sun all day.

Regular contributor Marjorie Wolfe asks, Does God Want Us To Be Rich?

Dan Grobstein File

• James Fallows in his Atlantic blog recommended this. Just had a conversation with a guy here who came by my desk and saw my picture of Obama and Biden on my bulletin board. Apparently he's going to raise our taxes. I told him that under Obama's plan if you make under $250,000 your taxes won't go up. He said that businesses making that money will pay more taxes and they will hire less people. As a former employer, I told him that taxes were the least of my worries. At least they're predictable paying them means you're making money. Cost of supplies and health care are the killers. Health care costs especially are what keeps businesses from hiring more full time workers. (As I read somewhere -- a guy says the value of his house and the value of his 401k has nosedived. He'd rather have paid higher taxes).
  
  OPINION | October 8, 2008
  Op-Ed Columnist: Palin's Kind of Patriotism
  By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
  Sarah Palin defended the surge in Iraq and the $700 billion rescue plan. Yet, she said that Americans who pay taxes to support such endeavors should not be considered patriotic.

End Oct. 13 Column