Worst Case
The New York Times should be ashamed of itself.
Cheerleading for the local industry or business may be understandable for a very small-town newspaper (many, if not most, of which nevertheless uphold their First Amendment obligation (it comes along with the right) to report the facts in the news columns and leave the opinion to the editorial page. See "Those With A Sense of History May Find It's Time to Invest," by Alex Berenson, pp. A1 and A27, Oct. 12, 2008. The alleged reporter (as opposed to editorial writer) found a couple of investors to opine that some stocks were real buys because they were lower than they had been in some time. The reporter and The Times get partial credit for at least including the quotes which indicated it may take years for it to become clear that this is a buying opportunity (which it arguably is not - see PE analysis below).
With the article there was a graphic on page A27 which indicates there may be a market bottom (based on historical PE ratios) at a PE ratio (based on four quarters of trailing earnings on the S P 500) of about 8 which is where it was in about 1982. The Dow 30 index closed at 8451.19 on Friday, October 10, 2008. According to the article, the trailing PE ratio was 17.2 at the close on 10/10/08. All of which indicates, based on this indicator, that there may be a bottom somewhere around a Dow Jones 30 Industrials Average of 3977.03 (call it 4000) if earnings (the "E" part of PE) stay constant. Could earnings decline? The article states that the PE based on expected earnings (not trailing but expected future earnings) in 2009 is about 13). Barring any other changes (as for example downward revisions of earnings estimates), the bottom is about 3041.30 (call it 3000) on the Dow.
The other institution which should be ashamed of itself is the U.S. Congress which again allowed itself to be stampeded and bamboozled for no good reason. This time Congress had every reason to know it was being railroaded and in fact knew it was being bamboozled by George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. Still, it passed the bailout bill to help the friends of George, Dick, and derelict in his duty Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson once (and perhaps real soon now future) leader of Goldman Sachs. During the alleged "hearings" which preceded the combination bailout and Christmas tree bill Paulson and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke made it clear they had been derelict. That is, they failed to lift an effective finger prior to March 2008 to stop the train wreck whose imminent approach was apparent to anyone looking. They continued to be derelict. Even at the hearings they did not know what they were going to do, did not have a schedule of obligations for each of the big financial companies, did not understand the interactive effect of their obligations and wanted to delay any additional financial regulation until 2009. In fact, they were unwilling even to attempt to close the barn door after the horses had fled. It appears they would continue to be derelict (as soon as Christmas tree bailout passed they let the world know no money from the $700B would be spent for a month or two (after telling Congress they needed action in days). No wonder the markets didn't believe them.
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Electoral Fun and Games
Look at a map (www.electoral-vote.com). Note that Obama is estimated to have about 343 electoral votes on Oct. 11 if the election were held then. In some key states, he is ahead by less than the margin of error (arbitrarily selected as plus or minus 3) and/or under 50%. A racist might tell a pollster she is undecided but there is little basis to conclude she would say she is for Obama. Thus, in this election, an assumption of an even split of allegedly undecided voters may be inappropriate. Those states are Nev, NM, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, with 66 electoral votes; Virginia (13) is at +6; 343 less 79 is 264 (which is less than the 270 electoral votes needed to win. The trend seems to be in Obama's direction.
The use of voting machines lacking ballots marked by a voter (as opposed to by a machine allegedly doing what a voter tells it to do) is standard in Nevada, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. There is an apparent absence of attention to this issue by the Obama campaign.
Q: What do you do if the reported unofficial and eventually certified result is for McCain in a state where the pre-election polls showed Obama winning and there is no voter (not machine) marked ballot to check or no paper record at all?
A: Inaugurate President-in-waiting Palin and her sidekick McCain.
A conclusion that the election is over (or has been decided) may be premature.
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Briefs
- If you want to deal with guilt by association, remember what CNN said about one of John McCain's chief surrogates the day she left her last job:
Carly Fiorina, one of the most powerful women in corporate America, is leaving the troubled computer maker (HP) after being forced out by the company's board.
Mostly for financial reasons, but also because she ordered board members to be wiretapped while hunting for leaks. - Good You Tube viewing: John McCain has been characterized as having a very strong temper -- here's some folks sharing their experiences with that unpleasant side of the Senator. Senator McCain has been extremely critical of Senator Obama's proposed policy that sometimes it may make sense to sit down and talk with the enemy. Former Iraq commander General Petraeus, however, doesn't think sitting down and talking with the adversary is a bad idea at all. In this video, Petraeus wholeheartedly admits that sometimes it's an appropriate course of action.